A Lost-Horse Forecast Is What Type Of Sales Forecasting Technique? (Correct answer)

  • A lost-horse forecast is what type of sales forecasting technique? More questions like this In forecasting, a tracking signal measures how well the forecast is keeping pace with trends (both the error size and direction) in demand

What is a lost-horse forecast?

A lost-horse forecast starts with the last known value of the item being forecast, and then lists the factors that could affect the forecast, assesses whether they have a positive or negative impact, and makes the final forecast.

Which method is also known as Lost-Horse method?

A lost-horse forecast involves starting with the last known value of the item being forecast, listing the factors that could affect the forecast, assessing whether they have a positive or negative impact, and making the final forecast.

What are the three main sales forecasting techniques?

The three kinds of sales forecasting techniques are AI-enabled, quantitative, and qualitative. A majority of businesses are still using quantitative and qualitative sales forecasting strategies to make predictions.

What are the three main sales forecasting techniques multiple select question?

There are three basic types—qualitative techniques, time series analysis and projection, and causal models. The first uses qualitative data (expert opinion, for example) and information about special events of the kind already mentioned, and may or may not take the past into consideration.

What is a direct forecast in marketing?

direct forecast. involves estimating the value to be forecast without any intervening steps.

What is trend extrapolation quizlet?

– Trend extrapolation – Involves extending a pattern observed in past data into the future.

Which of the following is a factor involved in demand forecasting?

A firm considers various factors, such as changes in income, consumer’s tastes and preferences, technology, and competitive strategies, while forecasting demand for its products.

Which three are examples of using secondary data?

Sources of secondary data include books, personal sources, journals, newspapers, websitess, government records etc. Secondary data are known to be readily available compared to that of primary data.

What does it mean to extrapolate the trend?

Trend extrapolation is one aspect of the larger field of trend (or trendline) analysis. It attempts to extend known data points to regions beyond the timeframe of known datapoints, almost always in an attempt to predict future values with some degree of probability.

What are the sales forecasting techniques?

Techniques of Sales Forecasting

  • Survey of buyers’ intentions.
  • Opinion poll of sales force.
  • Expert opinion.
  • Market test method.
  • Projection of past sales.
  • Products in use analysis.
  • Industry forecast and share of the sales of the industry.
  • Statistical demand analysis.

What is sales forecasting and its types?

Sales forecasting is the process of estimating future sales. Accurate sales forecasts enable companies to make informed business decisions and predict short-term and long-term performance. Companies can base their forecasts on past sales data, industry-wide comparisons, and economic trends.

What are forecasting techniques?

Forecasting is a technique that uses historical data as inputs to make informed estimates that are predictive in determining the direction of future trends. Businesses utilize forecasting to determine how to allocate their budgets or plan for anticipated expenses for an upcoming period of time.

Is a quantitative technique of sales forecasting?

Quantitative sales forecasting is a type of sales forecasting that is strictly objective and focuses on hard numerical sales data collected over the past months, and even years. Quantitative forecasting allows companies to easily pinpoint trends that have been occurring previously and may continue to occur.

What are quantitative methods of forecasting?

Quantitative Method The quantitative forecast method uses past data to forecast future data especially with numerical data and continuous pattern. This method is generally used for short term predictions. It is based on mathematical models and objective in nature.

Which of the following is the quantitative technique of forecasting?

Examples of quantitative forecasting methods are last period demand, simple and weighted N-Period moving averages, simple exponential smoothing, poisson process model based forecasting and multiplicative seasonal indexes.

Chapter 8 – Marketing Research Flashcards

Marketing research is the process of identifying a marketing issue and opportunity, gathering and evaluating information in a methodical manner, and making recommendations. Marketing Research is comprised of five steps. 1) Identify the nature of the problem. 2) Create a strategy for conducting research. 3) Compile all pertinent information 4) Compile your findings 5) Engage in marketing activities Step 1: Identify and define the problem 1) Establish research objectives, and 2) Identify potential marketing activities to pursue 3 Market research is divided into several categories (Step 1 – Define the problem) 1) Exploratory – generates suggestions for an issue that is still a little ambiguous.

Three-factor analysis attempts to establish the extent to which a change in one element has an effect on another.

Step 2: Develop a Research Plan necessitates the researcher’s specification of the restrictions on the marketing research activity, identification of the data required for marketing activities, and determination of how the data will be collected.

2 Important Factors in Making a Decision How to Gather Information (Step 2 – Develop the research plan) 1) Concepts are ideas regarding products or services that have been developed.

  1. Step 3: Gather all of the pertinent information Obtain secondary data first, followed by main data second.
  2. Secondary data and primary data are the two main categories of information.
  3. It is divided into two categories: internal data (from within the organization) and external data (from outside the organization) (outside the firm).
  4. Observational data (people being seen), questionnaire data (people being asked), and other sources of data are the three types of data (such as social media, panels and experiments, data mining, etc).
  5. The use of mechanical methods – national television ratings Personal approaches – mystery shopper, for instance.
  6. Survey Data (Step 3 – Gather relevant information) Facts and statistics gathered by surveying individuals about their views, awareness, intentions, and actions are known as questionnaire data.
  7. The Evaluation Process is divided into two parts: (Step 5 – Take marketing actions) The first step is to evaluate the choice itself, which entails keeping an eye on the market to assess whether more action is required in the future.
  8. Was it a mistake?

a product’s total sales volume that a company hopes to achieve over the course of a particular time period under defined environmental conditions and through its own marketing activities 3 Forecasting the main sales Techniques that are often employed include: 1) The decision maker’s judgments, 2) surveys of expert groups, and 3) statistical approaches are all considered.

For example, how many quarts of milk should I purchase?

Market research among knowledgeable groups (techniques for predicting sales).

Salesforce survey forecast – This entails asking the company’s salespeople to project sales for a specific period in the future.

Statistical Methods (including tools for anticipating sales) 3) Extrapolating a pattern detected in historical data into the future is known as trend extrapolation. Trend extrapolation along a straight line is used when the pattern can be characterized by a straight line.

Chapter 8 – Exam 2 Flashcards

Marketing research is the process of identifying a marketing issue and opportunity, gathering and evaluating information in a methodical manner, and making recommendations. marketing decisions that are less risky and more effective a deliberate decision between two or more options that is made consciously Marketing Research Methodology in Five Steps: 1. Identify the nature of the problem. 2. Create a strategy for conducting research. Identify and collect important facts. 4. Develop conclusions.

  • Carry out promotional activities Step 1: Identify and Define the Problem The objectives of the research are established, and potential marketing activities are identified.
  • Exploratory research entails generating ideas concerning ambiguous topics.
  • Descriptive research – the study of the frequency of occurrence or the strength of a connection between two variables 3.
  • In analyzing potential solutions to a problem, criteria or standards are utilized as guidelines.
  • Step 2: Construct a research strategy.
  • Identify the limits that apply to the marketing research process.
  • Identify the information that will be used to make marketing decisions.
  • Determine the best method for gathering the information.
  • For example, time and money Decide on the best method for gathering information: product or service concepts.

picking a group and using the findings as though they were representative to extrapolate the findings from the sample to much larger groups of distributors, consumers, or prospects in order to aid in the decision-making process for marketing actions Step 3: Gather All of the Necessary Information Generally speaking, the data and numbers pertaining to the situation may be separated into two categories.

  • Facts and numbers that have previously been compiled prior to the start of the project in question.
  • Financial statements, research reports, files, and client letters are examples of documents that are kept within the company.
  • data and numbers that have been gathered specifically for the project There are three subcategories in this section.
  • neuromarketing (also known as neuromarketing) a sort of observational study that is useful for discovering what individuals do but not why they do it.
  • 1.
  • technique for evaluating ideas Ideas are generated and evaluated using many approaches.
  • Survey Question Types There are several different types of survey questions.
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Social media platforms The second type of panel is an experiment.

Information Technology and Data Mining-pay attention to what people are saying and learn from it-a less annoying source of consumer-generated content 3.

An example of informal research is the use of experiments, which entails acquiring data by modifying components under strictly controlled settings in order to examine cause and effect relationships.

It makes a product available for purchase in a limited geographic region in order to aid in the evaluation of marketing actions.

Data stored in a centralized location on a vast scale throughout a whole enterprise.

Secondary and primary data each have their own set of pros and disadvantages.

If the data has already been obtained, it saves both time and money.

It is possible that the information is outdated.

It is possible that this is not exactly what you are searching for.

The one that is most specific to the subject under investigation 2.

1.

Make a presentation of the findings Step 5: Implement a marketing strategy.

Techniques for Predicting Future Sales 1.

questionnaires administered to knowledgeable individuals Statistics approaches are used to estimate the total number of units of a product that a company intends to sell within a given time period under specific environmental conditions and through its own marketing efforts.

This strategy is used to anticipate sales for the vast majority of businesses.

entails making an educated guess about the value to be forecasted without taking any more steps This process begins with the most recent known value of the thing being forecasted, then lists the factors that might affect the prediction, determines whether they are positive or negative, and makes the final forecast.

extending a pattern identified in previous data into the future linear trend extrapolation – straight line*very easy and can prove to be erroneous since it does not take into consideration changing conditions linear trend extrapolation – straight line

Week 6.3 Product Positioning and Sales Forecast

Positioning assists businesses in determining where their products/services fit in relation to competing products/services. Positioning refers to the position that a product or service has in the eyes of consumers in relation to significant features compared to competing items. A re-positioning strategy entails altering the offering’s relative position in relation to competing offerings. There are two basic ways to positioning: head-to-head positioning and differentiation positioning (or differentiation positioning).

  • Obtainable at As an illustration, the car rental firms Enterprise Rent-A-Car and Avis are placed head-to-head in the marketplace.
  • It is also known as differentiation positioning.
  • Retrieved from leadingbrandsinc.com/Example: Leading Brands Inc., based in Vancouver, placed their TrueBlue blueberry drink at specialist health stores that catered to health-conscious consumers.
  • Companies may better define their posture by developing a positioning statement.
  • taken from cars/new-models/xc90.html “For luxury families seeking a carefree driving experience, Volvo is a premium-priced automobile that provides the highest level of safety and dependability,” according to Volvo’s positioning statement for its North American market.
  • Keep in mind that you are repositioning in accordance with your plan.

Product Positioning with Perceptual Maps

A positioning statement aids in the conversion of the concept of placement into a more concrete knowledge of the situation. As an alternative to using a positioning statement, we may utilize a perceptual map to graphically express the positioning in addition to the statement. Aperceptual map is a two-dimensional graphic that depicts the position of a product as well as the location of competing items in relation to the product. It is a graph with two axes, one on the horizontal axis and one on the vertical axis.

  1. Visually depicting how consumers perceive rival items vs this offering is the goal of the perceptual map.
  2. Specifically, they hoped to increase milk sales, particularly among adults.
  3. Most adults avoided drinking chocolate milk because they considered it to be a child’s beverage.
  4. Below is a perceptual map showing the competitor goods, as well as the position of chocolate milk when it was first introduced.

Dairy producers saw an increase in sales, thanks in large part to increased adult consumption. The re-positioning was achieved by marketing efforts that highlighted the nutritious value of milk, as well as new packaging.

Perceptual Map for Milk and Other Beverages (~2 min)

Reasoning Using Criteria (Critical Thinking) Is it possible for you to create a perceptual map for your group work project? Question: When it comes to product qualities, which ones are most significant for the map? Keep in mind that you are repositioning in accordance with your plan.

Sales Forecasting

In sales forecasting, segmentation and target market selection are both important factors to consider. It is an estimate of overall sales volume for a product within a specific time period under specified environmental conditions and with the product’s own marketing activities included in the forecasting. The following are the three most common sales forecasting techniques:

  1. Decision-making judgments
  2. Surveys of knowledgeable groups
  3. Statistical methods
  4. And other factors.

Judgments of the Decision Maker

The majority of predicting is done on the basis of intuition. In a direct prediction, the value to be forecasted is estimated directly, with no intermediate stages taken in the process. When faced with a tough choice, an experienced manager would not have any issue relying on his or her own judgment. There is a technique called as lost-horse forecasting, which includes producing a forecast based on the most recent known value and adjusting it in response to positive or negative elements that are predicted in the future, respectively.

Photographs courtesy of LumineImages/iStock/Getty Images Exemplification:An example of daily decision-making may be determining how much money I should withdraw from the ATM.

Surveys of Knowledgeable Groups

Businesses can use survey methodologies and knowledgeable groups to forecast future sales, which they can then implement. One group that should be surveyed would be prospective consumers, for example. Prospective consumers are asked if they are likely to purchase a product during a specific time period in a survey of buyers’ intentions forecast, which is conducted every few months. Another group to poll is the company’s own sales representatives. They are active in sales on a regular basis, and they gain a greater understanding of the market than the majority of other employees.

Statistical Methods

The trend extrapolation approach is the most often used statistical method. Extending a trend detected in prior data into the future is what it is all about. Linear trend extrapolation is used when the observed pattern is linear – that is, when it can be characterized by a straight line – and the observed pattern is linear. It is a straightforward procedure that is simple to implement. To plot data in Excel and ask for the line of greatest fit is a reasonably straightforward process. Extrapolation of a linear trend into the future years is referred to as linear trend extrapolation.

  • If there are significant changes in the world or local markets, it is likely that the projections will be incorrect.
  • Their historical sales data is plotted on a graph going back to the year 2000.
  • The forecast shown in this graph is for the years 2000 to 2012.
  • So long as the environmental circumstances remain stable, we may expect sales to continue on their current linear path of growth.
  • The company should investigate the factors that contributed to the shift in the linear pattern of sales.
  • The University of Waterloo is a public research university in Canada.
  • Is there a linear trend in the data?
  • Which of the three types of sales forecasting techniques is NOT one of the three types of sales forecasting strategies?

2. The bulk of sales estimates are based on the decision maker’s best guesses and assumptions. surveys of well-informed individuals Extrapolation of statistical trends is one of the statistical approaches.

kerinmarketing80

  1. In marketing research, issue identification and opportunity identification are followed by systematic information collection and analysis, followed by recommendations for actions to enhance an organization’s marketing efforts. Using a five-step marketing research cycle that can lead to improved judgments, this chapter provides guidance. Defining the problem, the first phase in the process, entails establishing research objectives as well as defining potential marketing strategies. Step 2 of the research planning process include outlining restrictions on the problem, identifying data requirements, and deciding how to gather the data. Step 3 of the process of gathering relevant information entails taking into account relevant secondary and primary data. Secondary data has been collected prior to the project and includes information that is both internal and external to the organization and has been documented. In this study, primary data is collected particularly for the project and is gained by either observing or asking individuals. Massive volumes of marketing data can be saved, analyzed, and retrieved thanks to advancements in information technology. Data mining may be used to query databases in order to discover statistical associations that are relevant in marketing. Step four is the development of findings. Analysis of data and presentation of findings to decision-makers are two aspects of the job. Identification and implementation of marketing action suggestions, as well as evaluation of outcomes, are the tasks for Step 5 of the sequence. The top-down and buildupmethods of projecting sales are the two most fundamental methodologies. Individual judgements, group surveys, and statistical approaches are the three types of forecasting techniques that are often employed. Individual judgments are the most extensively used forecasting methodology. Direct and lost-horse predictions are two examples that are frequently used. In addition to asking questions of groups of individuals who are informed about expected future sales, another popular approach of forecasting is to conduct focus groups. Prospective buyers, the salesforce, executives, and experts are four such groups. Extrapolation of a pattern in previous data into the future is accomplished using statistical forecasting methods such as linear trend extrapolation
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Ch 7 – Marketing Research: From Customer Insights to Actions Flashcards by Eddy De La Torre

The decision maker’s assessments, surveys of expert groups, and are the three most often utilized sales forecasting strategies, according to 251. Prognostications based on heuristics B.contracts with customers C.experts from trade associations D.statistical approaches and techniques E.empirical investigations 252.A(n) is a sort of prediction that entails predicting the value to be forecast without the need for any further stages in the process. A.prediction in the direct line B.predictions based on survey results Forecast for the C.lost-horse D.prediction of the root cause of a loss E.prediction of future intentions 253.

In order to define an appropriate forecast range, B.

Selection of the alternative that garners the highest amount of support within the management team is option C.

In other words, choose the forecasting alternative that will allow a company to remain profitable even if the projections are erroneous.

A.prediction in the direct line Prediction of a missing horse (B.lost-horse prediction) C.prediction of the root cause of a loss D.additional information on the forecast E.projection with a time lag In order to anticipate a lost horse, you must first acknowledge that the activities you have tried in the past have failed, and then remove those and comparable acts from your choice of potential options.

  1. Begin with the most recent known value of the thing being forecasted, then list the variables that might affect it, determine whether they will have an adverse or favorable impact, and make the final prediction.
  2. C.making judgments without taking any other actions in between.
  3. E.selecting the forecasting option that would allow a company to remain profitable even if the projections were completely erroneous.
  4. The weather forecast for this Saturday and Sunday is calling for rain, so she anticipates fewer people attending.

This is an illustration of a (n) A.prediction in the direct line Prediction of a missing horse (B.lost-horse prediction) C.prediction of the root cause of a loss D.additional information on the forecast E.projection with a time lag Extending a pattern detected in historical data into the future is the process of trend extrapolation (see figure 257.) Selection of certain points on a graph of sales or market share, multiplying by the cost of living index, and allowing for a maximum variance of plus or minus 3 percent are the methods used in B.

  • C.
  • In the case of sales, revenue, or market share, picking a certain percentage and utilizing that amount as a prediction foundation for the year ahead is the preferred method of forecasting.
  • 258.In trend extrapolation, the forecasting approach that relies on the use of a straight line is referred to as .
  • C.Analysis of the planning gap D.infinite space and time E.extrapolation of a linear trend A.pattern evolves from year to year in a sort of trend extrapolation known as linear trend extrapolation (see Figure 259).
  • The C-slope of the line is directly proportional to profits.
  • E.pattern is characterized by a “S-shaped” curve.
  • What form of statistical forecasting is depicted in the above figure, 7-7?

C.curvilinear extrapolation is a type of extrapolation that is curved.

Figure 7-7 above shows a line labeled A, which denotes a dotted line (n) A.Causal investigation.

C.curvilinear extrapolation is a type of extrapolation that is curved.

E.regression in sales.

B.making judgments without taking any further actions in between.

D.asking the company’s salespeople to forecast revenues for the upcoming quarter E.selecting the forecasting option that would allow a company to remain profitable even if the projections were completely erroneous.

Choose the forecasting alternative that will allow a company to remain profitable even if the projections prove to be completely inaccurate.

E.averaging the forecasts collected from only regional sales managers and then producing the final projection is an example of this method.

“For Carmex, Facebook is not only a method to promote coupons and the newest product news, but it is also a marketing research resource,” explains Jeff Gerst, who administers the company’s social media sites.

B.estimating the size of the market for the Carmex Moisture Plus brand of premium lip balms for women, based on historical data.

determining the size of the market for Carmex products in countries where Facebook is active outside of the United States.

E.reducing from three to two the number of tastes that will be subjected to quantitative testing.

The company is investigating the use of a marketing statistic to assess how engaged its Facebook audience is with Carmex, such as when customers write a remark on the Carmex wall or react to one of its Facebook posts, while performing marketing research on Facebook.

Carmex is the name given to this unit of measurement. A.Sentiment. B.Participation in Decision Making. C.Engagement. D.The Pace of the Conversation. E.Likes.

(Get Answer) – Roll over each example to read the sales forecasting technique,.

Roll over each example to read the sales forecasting strategy, and then categorize it as a decision-judgment, maker’s a survey of informed groups, or a statistical method by clicking on the appropriate button. Box-Jenkins Intentions of Prospective Buyers Forecast for the Loss of a Horse Extrapolation of the Salesforce Direct Forecast Trend Survey of informed groups conducted by the Decision Maker’s judgment The Statistical Approach Techniques for Predicting Future Sales This activity is crucial since marketing managers are frequently tasked with the job of forecasting and calculating possible sales revenue.

  1. Furthermore, accurate sales estimates assist production managers in optimizing their production schedules.
  2. Using this activity, you will be able to distinguish between the three primary types of sales forecasting techniques: decision-maker judgements, surveys of expert groups, and statistical methodologies.
  3. Furthermore, accurate sales estimates assist production managers in optimizing their production schedules.
  4. Using this activity, you will be able to distinguish between the three primary types of sales forecasting techniques: decision-maker judgements, surveys of expert groups, and statistical methodologies.
  5. Horse that has gone astray Box Jenkins Intentions of Prospective Buyers Salesforce Direct Forecast Trend Extrapolation Statistical Method Salesforce Direct Forecast Trend Extrapolation Survey of Knowledgeable Groups to Assist in the Decision-Making Process

Expert’s Answer

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Sales Forecasting Techniques

The ability to forecast or estimate possible sales is frequently a primary aim of marketing research studies. When a company is planning its manufacturing schedule, accurate sales estimates are critical. During a particular time period, a company’s sales forecast refers to the total number of products it intends to sell under specific environmental conditions and through its own marketing efforts. For example, Betty Crocker may anticipate that 4 millionPage 228 cases of cake mix would be sold to customers in the United States in 2016, assuming that consumers’ dessert preferences stay constant and that rivals’ pricing remain stable.

There are three basic types of sales forecasting approaches that are frequently employed: (1) decision-maker judgements, (2) surveys of expert groups, and (3) statistical methodologies.

Judgments of the Decision Maker

In marketing research studies, one of the primary objectives is to forecast or estimate possible sales. When a company is scheduling manufacturing, accurate sales estimates are essential. During a particular time period, a company’s sales forecast refers to the total amount of products it intends to sell under specific environmental conditions and through its own marketing efforts. For example, Betty Crocker may anticipate that 4 millionPage 228 cases of cake mix would be sold to customers in the United States in 2016, assuming that consumers’ dessert tastes remain constant and that rivals’ pricing remain constant.

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Surveys of Knowledgeable Groups

If you’re curious about how much money your company will make next year, talk to people who are likely to know something about future sales. A survey of potential customers and a survey of the company’s salesforce are two frequent groups that are used to produce sales estimates. An investigation into the motives of prospective purchasers Forecasting is asking prospective buyers if they are likely to purchase a product within a specific time period in the future. This strategy can be useful for industrial items with a small number of potential consumers.

A salesforce survey forecast is asking the company’s salespeople to anticipate sales for a specific time period in the future.

Salespeople, on the other hand, can be unreliable forecasters, creating an overly optimistic image if they are passionate about a new product or an overly pessimistic one if their sales quota and future remuneration are contingent on meeting it.

Statistical Methods

Trend extrapolation is the most well-known statistical approach of predicting, and it entails extending a pattern identified in past data into the future. Linear trend extrapolation is the term used to describe a pattern that is defined by a straight line. Consider the following scenario: you were a sales forecaster for the Xerox Corporation in the early 2000s, and you possessed real sales data spanning the years 1988 to 1999 (see Figure 8–8). Linear trend extrapolation is a technique in which you draw a line to match historical sales data and project it into the future to produce the predicted figures given for the years 2000 through 2016.

Using trend extrapolation, we can predict whether or not the underlying relationships that have existed in the past will remain in the future.

If your guess turns out to be right, you’ll have an accurate prediction to work with.

In this particular instance, as seen in Figure 8–8, your estimates from 2000 to 2014 were far excessively optimistic, owing mostly to intense rivalry in the photocopying business. The increase in sales revenues in 2010 is mostly attributable to new acquisitions.

Marketing Research Turning information into action. – ppt download

1Marketing Research and Analysis Putting information to use by taking action 2What’s in a Movie’s Title, Anyway? The initial and final titles of three films are as follows: Shoeless Joe was transformed into Field of Dreams. Honey, I Shrunk the Kids 3000 became Pretty Woman, and Teenie Weenies became Honey, I Shrunk the Kids 3000. Is it expensive to conduct title research for movies? YES, THAT IS THE CASE! That being said, what is more expensive? A bad title can ruin a movie and cost a studio millions of dollars in distribution.

  1. Other types of changes to films have resulted as a result of market research as well.
  2. 4 Marketing research is intended to accomplish a specific goal.
  3. In marketing research, the ultimate goal is to provide decision-makers with actionable information that will enable them to make better decisions and, in turn, reduce risk.
  4. Studies, experiments, and the observation function are all examples of surveying and experimenting.
  5. To better understand the scope and nature of the marketing problem, preliminary research was conducted.
  6. It is intended to describe the fundamental characteristics of a given population in detail.
  7. To identify cause-and-effect relationships among variables 6Marketing Research Process Marketing is conducted on the basis of the scientific method.

The ability to replicate research results under identical environmental conditions –Validity.

7Marketing Research Process Step 1Exploratory Research Step 2SurveyExperiment Observation Sampling Step 3 Step 4 Data collection / Analysis Conclusions / Actions 8Exploratory Research Secondary and primary data Focus Group.

Depth interviews are detail individual interviews with people relevant to the research project.

Outlines the methods and procedures for collecting and analyzing the required information.

10Research Methods (descriptive and causal) (descriptive and causal) Survey.

Surveys can be conducted by: mail, telephone, personal interview and internet 11Research Methods (descriptive and causal) Experiment.

(Market test) Observation.

12Data Collection One method of collecting data in by sampling.

Probability samples can be very representative of a particular population.

They use arbitrary judgments to select the sample.

13Conclusions Researcher’s job is to interpret the information and make conclusions with regard to managerial decision making.

The solution should be monitored to ensure intended results occur.

Reporting only favourable but not unfavourable results.

Breaching the confidentiality of respondents and/or personal data if anonymity or nondisclosure was guaranteed.

16 How Marketing Researchers Managers Use Information Technology to Turn Information into Action Computer and communication network Databases Internal External Global sources Trade associations Canadian Census Internet Single-source services Customer orders Customer characteristics Inventory Sales calls Promotions Models to analyze, organize interpret, and present data Queries – who buys?

  1. – why?
  2. Refers to the maximum total sales of a product by all firms to a segment under specified environmental conditions and marketing efforts Sales or Company Forecast.
  3. MarketSales Forecasting18 Two Basic Approaches to Forecasting Top-Down Forecast Buildup Forecast TOP-DOWN BUILDUP19 Top-down forecast It entails subdividing an aggregate prediction into its major components.
  4. An estimate of the percent of retail sales generated by a given retail outlet is calculated using the “Buying Power Index” (BPI).
  5. In situations where there are distinguishable components, such as products, product lines, or market sectors, it is extensively employed.

prognosis for a horse to be lost Buyer Intentions Survey of Knowledgeable Groups Buyer Intentions Survey and Forecast projection from a sales force survey forecasted by a jury of executive opinion experts’ predictions based on a survey Statistical Procedures Extrapolation of a trend TimeCost – +22 minutes Evaluation of the Decision Maker Forecasting in real time It entails estimating the value to be forecasted without the need for any intermediate processes.

  • Forecast for horses to go missing.
  • Buyers’ intentions are predicted based on a survey of their intentions.
  • Forecast from a sales force poll.
  • Predictions from a jury of executive opinion It entails questioning educated leaders within the company on the likelihood of sales of their product.
  • 24 Statistical Procedures Extrapolation of a trend.
  • “Linear Trend Extrapolation” is the term used to describe the pattern when it is described with a straight line.
  • 25 Extrapolation of Xerox’s sales revenues based on a linear trend, performed in the beginning of 1995.

1984 198619881990199219941996199820002002 Linear trend extrapolation estimate for the years 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Following the forecasting process, actual values are obtained. Actual and projected sales revenue in billions of dollars for 2004

Lecture 18 – Sales Forecasting and Budgeting – Marketing Management –

Reasons for sales forecasting; users; techniques; and elements that influence sales forecasting Budgeting Types There are several types of budgeting. Establishing a financial budget Estimation of future sales It is the total sales of a product that a company anticipates will be sold over an extended period of time under specific environmental conditions and via its own marketing efforts that is referred to as a sales forecast. Typically, sales predictions are created for periods of three months (quarterly), six months (semi-annually), or one year (annually).

Some businesses have an operations cycle that is shorter than a year, and they prefer to predict for that cycle rather than the longer one (e.g.

When projecting over a short period of time (one year or less), accuracy is more likely to be higher.

For example, knowing how much inventory to purchase, when to begin marketing initiatives, or where to locate new retail outlets are all important considerations.

Sales predictions are used by all departments to plan their work for the next period (if the forecast is incorrect, the plans based on it will be incorrect as well).

When there is a shortage of inventory, sales opportunities may be missed since consumers don’t like to wait for products.

It has an impact on sales quotas and the remuneration of sales representatives.

To plan and arrange manufacturing activities – including machinery, labor, and materials – for items is essential.

For distribution, it is necessary to take into account available space, transportation, and labor so that you do not reserve too many vehicles or storage space when it is not required.

Purchasing is responsible for the organization of materials and components, as well as for negotiating more favorable terms with suppliers.

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