What Horse Is Going To Win The Kentucky Derby? (Best solution)

Scott Shapiro

  • Smile Happy.
  • Zandon.
  • Rattle N Roll.
  • Mo Donegal.
  • White Abarrio.
  • Classic Causeway.
  • Epicenter.
  • Chasing Time.
  • What horse is favored to win the Kentucky Derby? Cox’s Essential Quality is the 2-1 favorite in the latest 2021 Kentucky Derby odds, while Mandaloun and Baffert’s Medina Spirit are both 15-1. Midnight Bourbon (20-1) and Super Stock (30-1) also are long shots to finish at the front of the 19-horse 2021 Kentucky Derby field.

What horse won the Kentucky Derby 2021?

Medina Spirit at the Kentucky Derby At 12-1 odds, Medina Spirit and jockey John Velazquez won the Kentucky Derby on May 1 by a half-length over Mandaloun. It was the seventh Kentucky Derby victory for Baffert, breaking a tie with Ben Jones for the most by a trainer in the race’s 147-year history.

How many horses are in Kentucky Derby 2021?

The field is limited to twenty horses who qualify based on points earned in the 2021 Road to the Kentucky Derby, a series of designated races that was first introduced in 2013.

Who won the last Kentucky Derby?

The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby, the nation’s premier thoroughbred race, took place on May 1. Medina Spirit won an upset victory by a head over runner-up Mandaloun. It was Baffert’s seventh victory in the Derby, the most of any trainer. The results of the colt’s drug test were announced May 9.

How many horses are in the Kentucky Derby?

20 horses compete in the Kentucky Derby, which is a larger field size than most horse races; where on average 8 horses race against one another.

Which horse died after Kentucky Derby?

Kentucky Derby winning horse dies after workout routine Medina Spirit, who failed a drug test after he won the Kentucky Derby this year, died during a workout Monday morning in California. The horse collapsed in training at Santa Anita and suffered an apparent heart attack, his trainer, Bob Baffert, said.

What does the winning horse receive?

At the track in our example, the payout is the standard rate; 60% of the purse typically goes to the winner, 20% to second place, 10% to third, 5% to 4th, 3% to 5th, and 2% to 6th. So if the purse is $10,000, the winning horse is paid $6000. Ten percent of that goes to the trainer and 10% to the Jockey.

How much is Medina Spirit worth?

Even crazier, just two years after being acquired at auction for $1,000, Medina Spirit is most likely now worth more than $50 million. With less than 5% of all racehorses earning more than $100,000 annually, the sport of horse racing has long been considered a fun but money-burning experience reserved for elites.

Has a 50/1 horse ever won the Kentucky Derby?

Giacomo (foaled February 16, 2002 in Kentucky) is a champion American Thoroughbred racehorse who won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at 50–1 odds.

Where is secretariat buried?

Every year, hundreds of people come to the Bluegrass to visit a landmark known primarily only to horse people: Secretariat’s grave at Claiborne Farm in Paris, just outside Lexington. Claiborne is the Fenway Park of Kentucky horse farms, one of the oldest and most respected operations.

Who won Kentucky Derby 1985?

– Spend a Buck, the 1985 Kentucky Derby winner and Horse of the Year, died at Brazil’s Haras Bage do Sul on Nov.

Medina Spirit Stripped of 2021 Kentucky Derby Win

Medina Spirit will no longer be the winner of the Kentucky Derby in 2021, according to the official results. Officials with the Kentucky Racing Commission said on Monday that the horse, who died abruptly in December, was disqualified from the race for failing a drug test after winning it. Medina Spirit is only the third horse in the race’s 147-year history to be penalized for finishing first after receiving a disqualification. It is because of this decision that the colt’s owner, Amr Zedan, will not receive the $1.8 million first-place check, which was never paid out.

It was announced in a statement that Mandaloun will be recognized as the winner of the 2021 Derby, and that “we look forward to celebrating Mandaloun at a future date in a manner that is fitting of this rare distinction.” Churchill Downs, which is located near Louisville, Ky., is the track that hosts the Derby.

Baffert was also fined $7,500 and suspended for 90 days, starting on March 8, in addition to the other penalties.

14, the Kentucky Horse Racing Association conducted a videoconference hearing before a three-member panel of stewards.

  • It was betamethasone that was discovered in Medina Spirit’s system.
  • Neither Baffert nor his attorneys admitted to injecting the colt, but said the medicine was given topically to Medina Spirit’s hind end to treat a skin problem.
  • He also stated that they will seek all legal remedies available to them through the judicial system.
  • A fresh stain has been placed on a sport that has been plagued by doping issues, and Baffert’s image and future in the sport are now in risk as a result of the ban.
  • Those in charge of Kentucky racing have made their judgment at a time when the Triple Crown season is heating up and the race for qualifying points to secure a position in the Derby’s starting gate is becoming increasingly competitive.
  • Baffert has three outstanding 3-year-old colts in his barn, with two of them, Corniche and Newgrange, being undefeated so far this season.

According to a comprehensive draft legal complaint obtained by The New York Times, Baffert threatened to sue Churchill Downs last month if the track did not lift the two-year ban, claiming that his right to due process had been violated and that he had been unlawfully excluded from Churchill Downs and the Derby.

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  • Carstanjen, the chairman and chief executive of Churchill Downs, stated that the lawsuit was “without merit.” He vowed to countersue if the lawsuit was filed, and he stressed that Baffert had been convicted of similar crimes in the past.
  • Over the course of four decades, Baffert’s horses have failed a total of 30 drug tests, including five in the most recent 13-month span.
  • Baffert’s “well-worn script” of obfuscating the facts, making reasons to explain positive drug tests, and blaming others in order to evade accountability for his own conduct, according to Carstanjen, who spoke to The New York Times about the potential lawsuit.
  • The trainer has denied the allegations, which were heard by a panel of three members of the board of directors.
  • California racing officials announced on Friday that tests of hair, blood, and urine had revealed no signs of doping.

According to the law, which is set to go into effect on July 1, 2022, a board of directors controlled by the Federal Trade Commission will develop regulations and punishments that will be implemented by the United States Anti-Doping Agency, which governs Olympic and other top athletes in the United States.

  1. It is unclear what role USADA will play in the future, however, because the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, which is responsible for developing a framework and funding for enforcement, was unable to come to an agreement with the agency.
  2. With Medina Spirit’s apparent triumph at Churchill Downs last year, Baffert became the seventh trainer to win the Kentucky Derby, breaking the previous record of Ben Jones, who won the race for the first time in 1952.
  3. When Maximum Security crossed the finish line first in 2019, he was disqualified for nearly knocking over a competing horse in the far bend and delaying the progress of other horses behind him.
  4. He is now in custody awaiting trial.
  5. In that particular case, the disqualification was affirmed only after four years of litigation in the courts of appeals.

The Kentucky verdict did not completely compensate bettors. However, although those who backed Medina Spirit were able to keep their wins, those who backed Mandaloun were left with losing tickets, which caused a class-action lawsuit to be filed on their behalf.

2021 Kentucky Derby date, horses, predictions, odds: Expert who nailed Derby prep races releases bets, picks

The 147th running of the Run for the Roses will take place on Saturday, and the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in 2021 has the potential to be a watershed moment in racing history. Essential Quality and Mandaloun will be entered in the Kentucky Derby for the first time by Louisville-born trainer Brad Cox, who hopes to become the first local trainer to win the sport’s most prestigious award. Medina Spirit, trained by Bob Baffert, will aim to deliver the trainer a record-breaking seventh Derby triumph, while Midnight Bourbon and Super Stock, trained by fellow Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, will attempt to earn him his first.

  • Midnight Bourbon (20-1) and Super Stock (30-1) are also long chances to finish first and second, respectively, in the 19-horse lineup for the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
  • Eastern Time.
  • Andy Beyer’s famous handicapping book “Picking Winners” in the late 1980s inspired Weir, who now lives in Saratoga Springs, New York, to start handicapping and watching horse racing.
  • The Beyer Speed Figure is a figure that is issued to every race raced by a horse that measures how quickly the animal ran.
  • His expertise with speed statistics, as well as his top-tier handicapping, helped him earn one of only eight seats on Beyer’s figure-making crew in 2017, a position that he has retained to this day.
  • When he played at Del Mar in 2014, he nailed a $60,000 Pick 6.
  • In 2016 and 2017, Weir qualified for the coveted National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas, where he placed second and third respectively.
  • On June 13, Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes, which paid a whooping $1,039 to the winning owner.
  • On June 18, June 19, June 25, July 2, and July 5, he was the lucky winner of the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park, with the winning ticket yielding a staggering $2,159.50.
  • Davis Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby, he also finished in first place overall in the Rising Star Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes, putting him in first place overall in the Kentucky Derby prep races for the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

Anyone who has followed him has a leg up on the competition. Weir has completed his handicapping of the Kentucky Derby horses for the year 2021, as well as his selections and wagering strategies. You can only view them in this location.

Top 2021 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprising development: Weir is essentially losing Essential Quality, despite the fact that he is the overwhelming 2-1 favorite. Favorites have won 56 of the 146 prior races (38 percent) and have finished second and third in the last two years, respectively. Weir recognizes that Essential Quality has earned his position as the favorite, but the racing expert does not see where the horse has demonstrated that he warrants such a small number. He is the most accomplished horse, but I do not believe he offers an edge that justifies paying such a low price,” Weir said in an interview with Sporting News.

  1. He battled to a victory against Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 3, but he’ll have to start from the 14th post position this time around.
  2. Another surprise: Weir has great hopes for Medina Spirit, despite the fact that he’s a 15-1 long shot.
  3. Baffert has won a record 16 Triple Crown races.
  4. “If anyone knows how to bring a horse to peak on Derby Day, it’s Baffert,” Weir said in an interview with SportsLine.
  5. The 49-year-old Puerto Rican has been racing in the United States since 1990 and has won 15 Breeders’ Cup events, as well as two Belmont Stakes triumphs, to his credit.
  6. He is expected to ride more aggressive this time around.

How to make 2021 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

The longshot who has been training “very well” at Churchill Downs is one of the candidates for Weir’s victory. As a matter of fact, Weir believes that this horse is a “must-use” in your wagers and that it may have been one of the favorites. Only at SportsLine will he reveal which horses he intends to back. So, who will be the winner of the Kentucky Derby in 2021? Which epic long shot is a must-back, and which one should be avoided? Check out the most recent Kentucky Derby odds in the table below, and then go over to SportsLine to check Weir’s Kentucky Derby predictions.

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2021 Kentucky Derby horses, odds

Program Horse Odds
1 Known Agenda 6-1
2 Like the King 50-1
3 Brooklyn Strong 50-1
4 Keepmeinmind 50-1
5 Sainthood 50-1
6 O Besos 20-1
7 Mandaloun 15-1
8 Medina Spirit 15-1
9 Hot Rod Charlie 8-1
10 Midnight Bourbon 20-1
11 Dynamic One 20-1
12 Helium 50-1
13 Hidden Stash 50-1
14 Essential Quality 2-1
15 Rock Your World 5-1
16 King Fury SCR
17 Highly Motivated 10-1
18 Super Stock 30-1
19 Soup and Sandwich 30-1
20 Bourbonic 30-1

2021 Kentucky Derby odds, best predictions: Expert who hit 9 Derby-Oaks Doubles shares picks

Known Agenda, the Florida Derby winner, will be among four runners in the Kentucky Derby 2021, which will take place on Saturday at Churchill Downs. Trainer Todd Pletcher is bidding for his third Kentucky Derby victory. With Super Saver in 2010, and again with Always Dreaming in 2017, Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice in his 53-year-old career. A record 55 horses have been entered in the Kentucky Derby under his guidance, six more than the next greatest trainer, D. Wayne Lukas. Known Agenda will compete in the Kentucky Derby in 2021, and is largely thought to have Pletcher’s greatest opportunity to win his third Kentucky Derby.

  • Dynamic One (20-1), Bourbonic (30-1), and Sainthood are some of Pletcher’s other contenders (50-1).
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  • The 2021 Kentucky Derby will be Demling’s first appearance in the race since a significant heat in 2020: the Kentucky Derby.
  • At one point last year, he correctly predicted the winners of six consecutive races: the Saudi Cup, the Gotham Stakes, the Rebel Stakes, the Louisiana Derby, the Florida Derby, and the Belmont Stakes (all in the United States).
  • With the exception of three occasions in his previous 12 tries, he has held a ticket with the winners of both the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby races.
  • Demling stated that Tiz the Law was definitely the best horse in the field at last year’s Belmont, and Barclay Tagg’s horse drew away for a comfortable 3 3/4-length triumph.

Anyone who has followed him has made significant gains. Now that the field for the Kentucky Derby in 2021 is beginning to take form, Demling is offering his choices and predictions on SportsLine. You may find them by clicking here.

Top 2021 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Demling is downgrading Hot Rod Charlie, despite the fact that he’s one of the top Kentucky Derby favorites for 2021. In fact, according to Demling, Hot Rod Charlie does not even make it to the board. Trainer Doug O’Neill already has two Kentucky Derby victories to his credit, but getting a third got significantly more difficult after the Kentucky Derby was postponed last month. Hot Rod Charlie, who was formerly a $110,000 yearling acquisition, won the Louisiana Derby with rider Joel Rosario at the helm in 2018.

  1. Despite the fact that Demling believes that Hot Rod Charlie “seems to grow stronger each time he gets on the track,” having a new rider onboard the horse feels like too large of a risk, which is why Demling is discounting the colt in his Kentucky Derby wagers for the year 2021.
  2. Anyone hoping for a big payout should keep an eye out for him.
  3. On April 3, he flipped the script in the Blue Grass Stakes, which he won.
  4. However, his performance at 1 1/8 miles demonstrated unequivocally that Highly Motivated is deserving of consideration as one of the top Kentucky Derby candidates in 2021.

How to make 2021 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling has a particular fondness for a double-digit long shot who has “looked terrific” while in training, says Demling. Demling has revealed whose horse it is, as well as his complete projected leaderboard, over at SportsLine.com. Which horse will take home the Kentucky Derby trophy in 2021? And which gigantic underdog is a must-have in your betting pool? Check out the most recent Kentucky Derby odds in the table below, then head over to SportsLine to view Demling’s Kentucky Derby predictions.

2021 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions

Program Horse Odds
1 Known Agenda 6-1
2 Like the King 50-1
3 Brooklyn Strong 50-1
4 Keepmeinmind 50-1
5 Sainthood 50-1
6 O Besos 20-1
7 Mandaloun 15-1
8 Medina Spirit 15-1
9 Hot Rod Charlie 8-1
10 Midnight Bourbon 20-1
11 Dynamic One 20-1
12 Helium 50-1
13 Hidden Stash 50-1
14 Essential Quality 2-1
15 Rock Your World 5-1
16 King Fury SCR
17 Highly Motivated 10-1
18 Super Stock 30-1
19 Soup and Sandwich 30-1
20 Bourbonic 30-1

2022 Kentucky Derby Odds

The Kentucky Derby is a horse race in Kentucky, and the odds are in your favor. Kentucky Derby odds, betting, future wagering, handicapping, picks, prep races, competitors, winners, history, results, and tickets were last updated on January 31, 2022. The odds for the Kentucky Derby in 2022 are a highly sought-after gauge for horseplayers and the general public alike, because Morning Line odds assist to convey insights about the field of Kentucky Derby runners’ caliber and worth.

  • Short odds are odds that are closer to even money or ‘1’ than they are to a win, as as ‘4-5.’
  • A horse’s odds are shorter when compared to other horses in the same race
  • The shorter the odds, the better the horse might be seen when compared among racing peers.
  • Long odds are odds that are farther away from even money or ‘1’ than even money or ‘1’, such as ’30-1.’
  • Horses with higher chances of winning the Derby have a lower likelihood of being talented within the field of Derby starters.

Where can I Find Kentucky Derby odds?

Visit this page when the Kentucky Derby post position draw is completed in order to get the morning line odds!

  • In addition to official Kentucky Derby morning line odds, TwinSpires.com offers live Kentucky Derby betting odds as well as Kentucky Derby LIVE betting odds on KentuckyDerby.com. The Kentucky Derby Prep Race Winner Odds are also available on KentuckyDerby.com. The process by which morning line odds are calculated
  • Wynn Las Vegas Odds & Figures

Official 2021 Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds

Following the conclusion of the 2020-21 Road to the Kentucky Derby and the announcement of the official field and post positions, the official morning line odds for the 2021 Run for the Roses may be seen below.

Essential Quality, trained by Brad Cox and having won four races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, is the pre-race favorite, with odds of 2-1.

(1)Known Agenda 6-1 Todd Pletcher /Irad Ortiz Jr. 102
(2)Like the King 50-1 Wesley Ward /Drayden Van Dyke 104
(3)Brooklyn Strong 50-1 Daniel Velazquez /Umberto Rispoli 10
(4)Keepmeinmind 50-1 Robertino Diodoro /David Cohen 18
(5)Sainthood 50-1 Todd Pletcher /Corey Lanerie 40
(6)O Besos 20-1 Greg Foley /Marcelino Pedroza 25
(7)Mandaloun 15-1 Brad Cox /Florent Geroux 52
(8)Medina Spirit 15-1 Bob Baffert /John Velazquez 74
(9)Hot Rod Charlie 8-1 Doug O’Neill /Flavien Prat 110
(10)Midnight Bourbon 20-1 Steve Asmussen /Mike Smith 66
(11)Dynamic One 20-1 Todd Pletcher /Jose Ortiz 40
(12)Helium 50-1 Mark Casse /Julien Leparoux 50
(13)Hidden Stash 50-1 Vicki Oliver /Rafael Bejarano 32
(14)Essential Quality 2-1 Brad Cox /Luis Saez 140
(15)Rock Your World 5-1 John Sadler /Joel Rosario 100
(16)King Fury 20-1 Kenny McPeek /Brian Hernandez Jr. 20
(17)Highly Motivated 10-1 Chad Brown /Javier Castellano 50
(18)Super Stock 30-1 Steve Asmussen /Ricardo Santana Jr. 109
(19)Soup and Sandwich 30-1 Mark Casse /Tyler Gaffalione 40
(20)Bourbonic 30-1 Todd Pletcher /Kendrick Carmouche 100

Official morning line odds are determined by an odds line maker after the post position draw is conducted during Derby week. Betting public interest and wagering action are used by the odds maker to establish, to the best of their ability, what the odds of each horse will sit at. Before the official Kentucky Derby draw is made on Derby week, any odds or lines that appear elsewhere are either speculative, a bookmaker’s best guess, or not officially sanctioned by the state.

Morning Line vs Final Odds for Kentucky Derby Prep Race Winners

Below is a table that lists each Road to the Kentucky Derby prep event, as well as the winning horse in each race, as well as the morning line and final odds for each winning horse heading into those races.

  • The information on each Kentucky Derby North American prep race winner for the 2021 Kentucky Derby season can be used to determine what lessons can be learned. With morning line odds and final odds side by side in the table below, you can see which horses started as a near favorite and by start time, due to public money fluctuation, had fallen or gained public betting backing
  • Whether these Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race winners will be favorites for the Kentucky Derby
  • And whether these Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race winners will be favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
RTKD Race Winning Horse ML Odds Final Odds
Iroquois Stakes Sittin On Go 15-1 24-1
American Pharoah Stakes Get Her Number 7-2 8-1
Breeders’ Futurity Essential Quality 2-1 9-5
Champagne Stakes Jackie’s Warrior 3-5 4-5
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Essential Quality 4-1 7-2
Kentucky Jockey Club Keepmeinmind 6-5 2-1
Remsen Stakes Brooklyn Strong 7-2 7-1
Springboard Mile Senor Buscador 15-1 7-2
Los Alamitos Futurity Spielberg 5-2 9-5
Jerome Stakes Capo Kane 12-1 6-1
Sham Stakes Life Is Good 2-5 1-5
Lecomte Stakes Midnight Bourbon 7-2 7-2
Smarty Jones Stakes Caddo River 5-2 3-5
Robert B. Lewis Stakes Medina Spirit 5-2 1-1
Holy Bull Stakes Greatest Honour 5-2 5-2
Withers Stakes Risk Taking 5-2 9-5
Sam F. Davis Candy Man Rocket 10-1 3-1
El Camino Real Derby Rombauer 8-5 6-5
John Battaglia Memorial Hush of a Storm 10-1 6-1
Southwest Stakes Essential Quality 3-2 4-5
Risen Star Stakes Mandaloun 9-2 2-1
Fountain of Youth Stakes Greatest Honour 9-5 1-1
Gotham Stakes Weyburn 20-1 46-1
Tampa Bay Derby Helium 6-1 15-1
San Felipe Stakes Life Is Good 4-5 1-2
Rebel Stakes Concert Tour 2-1 8-5
Louisiana Derby Hot Rod Charlie 3-1 5-2
Jeff Ruby Steaks Like the King 6-1 7-1
Florida Derby Known Agenda 5-1 5-1
UAE Derby Rebel’s Romance n/a n/a
Blue Grass Stakes Essential Quality 3-5 1-2
Santa Anita Derby Rock Your World 4-1 5-1
Wood Memorial Bourbonic 30-1 72-1
Arkansas Derby Super Stock 6-1 12-1
Lexington Stakes King Fury 10-1 18-1

How Kentucky Derby Morning-line Odds Are Made

The Post Position Draw, a one-hour ritual that decides starting positions for the Kentucky Derby, is when the odds for the race are published. The Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw takes place on the Wednesday before the race, which takes place on the first Saturday in May, and is broadcast live on the internet. Customers at TwinSpires are well aware that we are the go-to site for Kentucky Derby gambling – and the race odds that are being revealed are undoubtedly one of the most exciting aspects of the Kentucky Derby wagering process that has been disclosed.

  • He announces the odds for the main event immediately after the post positions are selected, according to the schedule.
  • Every year, a complete field of 20 competitors may be expected for America’s most famous horse race, the Belmont Stakes.
  • races is now at 14 for the Kentucky Derby, the event has the potential to produce excellent bet returns.
  • For the most up-to-date odds, you may sign up for a free account at TwinSpires or visit KentuckyDerby.com.
  • After the introduction of a November KDFW in 2013, the remaining three pools are normally planned over the months of February, March, and April, in conjunction with significant pre-race events.
  • Return to the top of the page

2020 Kentucky Derby: Las Vegas Opinions

What are the bookmakers’ thoughts on the horses who will compete in the Kentucky Derby? Find a sample of their opening and closing odds for the 14th of January, 2020, below.

HONOR A.P. 50 14
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Wynn Las Vegas Odds Summary for the 2018 Kentucky Derby

Regarding the Kentucky Derby, which took place on May 5th, we went back to September, when the Wynn Las Vegas casino revealed futures figures on a vast list of prospective Kentucky Derby winning candidates. You don’t have to do much research to discover how much has changed since this was unquestionably the time when the candidates had their greatest odds. In addition to being the best rated two-year-old of the 2017 campaign, Bolt d’Oro has long been considered the barometer for the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

  • Things have altered significantly since then.
  • The horse that Bolt d’Oro defeated in that race was the same horse that had defeated him on the track the day before.
  • McKinzie wasn’t even on the Wynn Las Vegas radar when the casino opened in September, but he’s now listed as a 7/1 longshot.
  • Earlier this month, on March 11, Justify ran a bullet mile in 1:35.73 at Santa Anita and is scheduled to compete against other thoroughbreds in the Arkansas Derby on April 14th.
  • On the Derby trail at that moment in time, he’s the most difficult horse to pin down from a betting perspective.
  • Magnum Moon’s victory in the Rebel Stakes catapulted him to a 12/1 odds-on favorite.
  • His odds were most recently 20/1 at the time of writing.
  • Horses like as Audible, Promises Fulfilled, Bolt d’Oro, McKinzie, Justify, and a slew of others are beginning to post significant victories in the top tier events on the Kentucky Derby course.

More clarification should be provided by the forthcoming Florida Derby on March 31st, the Wood Memorial on April 7th, the Blue Grass on April 7th, the Santa Anita Derby on April 7th, and the Arkansas Derby on April 14th. Return to the top of the page

Why your 2021 Kentucky Derby horse can — or can’t — win

With Essential Quality, the unbeaten 2-year-old champion, as the overwhelming favorite in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, there’s no doubt who will win. However, practically everyone on the Churchill Downs backside seemed to believe that this year’s race is wide open this time around. Essential Quality (Blue Grass) and Hot Rod Charlie (Louisiana Derby) are among the top candidates who were spectacular in winning their last prep races. Other prominent contenders include Known Agenda (Florida Derby) and Rock Your World (Santa Anita Derby).

The Kentucky Derby in 2021: Everything you need to know about the Run for the Roses So, with that in mind, The Courier Journal publishes its yearly analysis of why each horse may and cannot win the Kentucky Derby – many of which are serious, a couple of which are humorous, and one of which is certain to fail.

Essential Quality

Why he has a chance to win: He is unbeaten in four graded stakes races and has done nothing wrong in his racing career, which began in September last year at Churchill Downs. With the addition of Louisville’s Brad Cox, he now has the hottest trainer in the United States on his side. He’s the one who has to be defeated. He is unable to win because of the following reasons: The Derby has never been won by a trainer from Louisville. Aside from that, only two horses have ever completed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-Derby double: Street Sense (2006-07) and Nyquist (2007-08).

Hot Rod Charlie

His chances of winning: He was a two-length winner in the Louisiana Derby, which also produced three other horses (Midnight Bourbon, O Besos, and Mandaloun), all of whom are receiving significant support in the Kentucky Derby. Doug O’Neill understands what it takes to win the Kentucky Derby, having done it twice with I’ll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2013). (2016). Why he won’t be able to win: There are issues regarding his lineage. Oxbow, Hot Rod Charlie’s father, won the Preakness in 2013, although he has yet to breed a Grade 1 winner of his own.

The last winner of the Louisiana Derby to also win the Kentucky Derby was Grindstone, who did so in 1996.

Super Stock

Why he has a chance to win: The Asmussen family appears to be in a favorable position with Super Stock. In addition to being the trainer, Steve Asmussen is also a co-owner with Erv Woolsey, thanks to his father Keith Asmussen. In his first three races, Steve’s son, Keith James, rode the horse, and the entire family was in attendance for the triumph in the Arkansas Derby. Keith James Asmussen described it as “better than a movie.” He is unable to win because of the following reasons: The Arkansas Derby provided the perfect trip for Super Stock, with Caddo River putting in the effort up front until faltering late in the race.

He’s not going to receive the same set-up in the Kentucky Derby, unfortunately.

Like the King

Why he has a chance to win: In six appearances, he has never finished worse than third, and he is coming off a career-best performance in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. If Lil E. Tee (1992) and Animal Kingdom (2011) were able to pull off the ultimate Turfway Park-Churchill Downs double, why can’t Like the King accomplish the same? He is unable to win because of the following reasons: According to speed estimates, he performs better on synthetic and grass surfaces than on dirt, as evidenced by the fact that his two poorest races of his career occurred during his two races on dirt.

Known Agenda

His chances of winning are good since he has gone 2-0 since donning blinkers, and he appears to be peaking at the ideal time after winning the Florida Derby by 2 3/4 lengths. Always Dreaming, trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Vinnie Viola, completed the Florida Derby-Kentucky Derby double in 2017, and Known Agenda has the potential to do the same this year, especially with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. He is unable to win because of the following reasons: However, Curlin has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, while having produced a winner of the Preakness (Exaggerator) and a winner of the Belmont (Palace Malice).

Rock Your World

Why he has a chance to win: The 3-year-old has gone unbeaten in his first three career appearances and won the Santa Anita Derby, which has produced four of the previous nine Kentucky Derby winners. However, despite the fact that he had won both of his career’s first two races on grass, he appeared to do better on dirt. He is unable to win because of the following reasons: What will be the reaction of the racing gods to the change in jockeys? Umberto Rispoli rode Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby, but he was replaced when Joel Rosario became available for the Kentucky Derby and rode Rock Your World in the Kentucky Derby.

“History will judge whether I was correct or incorrect.”


Why he has a chance to win: Kendrick Carmouche appears to have a winning touch with Bourbonic, having ridden him to victories in both of his rides in 2021, including the Wood Memorial at odds of 72-1. With Bernardini as his sire, it would appear that Bourbonic has a good chance of improving at the 1 14-mile distance. His chances of winning the Wood are slim because the race was extremely sluggish, and trainer Todd Pletcher has stated that Wood runner-up Dynamic One is the most promising of his horses to come out of that race.

Medina Spirit

His chances of winning are high since he has never finished worse than second in his five career starts, and two of his three losses came against Life Is Good, who was on his way to being the Kentucky Derby favorite had he not been injured. With six prior victories, trainer Bob Baffert has demonstrated that he understands how to win this event.

He is unable to win because of the following reasons: Medina Spirit, who was purchased for a modest $35,000, is not your typical Baffert horse with an outstanding pedigree and a premium purchase price. Is he going to be able to make up four and a half lengths on Rock Your World in four weeks?

Midnight Bourbon

Why he has a chance to win: He has a 2-2-3 record in seven lifetime starts, with five of those coming in graded stakes. He is constantly in the mix. With the addition of Mike Smith, he gains a jockey who has won the Kentucky Derby on two occasions. He is unable to win because of the following reasons: It seemed certain that Steve Asmussen, the trainer, will break through and win the Kentucky Derby at some time in the future. While waiting for that moment, Asmussen’s Derby statistics can’t be ignored — 21 starts, 0 winners.


Despite the fact that the Louisiana Derby has been thrown out, Mandaloun’s track record is as remarkable as anyone’s. He was the winner of the Grade 2 Risen Star and also had a victory at Churchill Downs in November of last year. He’s been doing an excellent job at Churchill over the last three weeks. He is unable to win because of the following reasons: Mandaloun’s trainer, Brad Cox, has stated on several occasions that he has not discovered an explanation for the colt’s sixth-place result in the Louisiana Derby.

Furthermore, Mandaloun appears to have become the “buzz horse” coming up to the Derby, and the “buzz horse” is never the one that takes home the prize.

Highly Motivated

If you like stats, Highly Motivated appears to be the horse for you. He’s scored Brisnet Speed Ratings of 102 in three consecutive races, which suggests he has a good chance to win. Chad Brown may be the finest trainer in American history who has never won the Kentucky Derby, and it appears that his time is nearing. He is unable to win because of the following reasons: Highly Motivated had every opportunity to defeat Essential Quality in the Blue Grass, but was unable to pull it off, leading the pace until falling short by a neck at the finish line of the race.


Why he can win: He has never been defeated, winning twice at Woodbine as a 2-year-old before winning the Tampa Bay Derby in his first appearance as a 3-year-old in the Tampa Bay Derby. On April 10, he ran five furlongs in 59.20 seconds at Churchill Downs, which was a good exercise for him. He is unable to win because of the following reasons: Two major setbacks have occurred after the Tampa Bay Derby on March 6, including an eight-week rest and three career races. Since 1929, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby after a break of more than seven weeks from training or competition.


Soup and Sandwich

Why he has a chance to win: The runner-up in the Florida Derby is expected to be near the lead early in the race and appears to have the lineage to cover 1 14 miles. In his three career starts, he has never finished worse than second. He is unable to win because of the following reasons: However, even though Justify overcame the “Curse of Apollo” in 2018, he and Secretariat remain the only horses to win the Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old.

Although the “rules” appear to be evolving over the past several years, it’s difficult to overlook the absence of spice in Soup and Sandwich. Also, can you envision that name on a mint julep glass? Is it even possible?

Dynamic One

Why he has a chance to win:He showed some potential in the Wood Memorial and would have likely won had he not lost his concentration at the end of the race. Dynamic One, a yearling purchased for $725,000, clearly possesses a number of noteworthy characteristics. He is unable to win because of the following reasons: Although he is certain to have better days ahead of him, he appears to be a step below the leading horses in this event. It’s difficult to overlook how sluggish the Wood Memorial was moving.

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His chances of winning are high because he has never finished lower than second in three races and is ridden by Corey Lanerie, who has experience winning at Churchill Downs. Perhaps the racing gods will approve of the moniker? He is unable to win because of the following reasons: Are there any realistic chances of winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks if you are unable to win the Kentucky Derby? He’s another one that didn’t compete when he was just two years old. This appears to be a significant stretch.

Hidden Stash

When it comes to experience, he is one of the most experienced horses in the field, having competed in three straight graded stakes races as a 3-year-old, finishing third in the Sam F. Davis, second in the Tampa Bay Derby, and fourth in the Blue Grass. He has a chance to win because: In addition, he has a victory at Churchill in November to his credit. He is unable to win because of the following reasons: Hidden Stash has never really won a stakes race, although being extremely competitive, and his speed stats indicate that he is on a different level than the majority of horses.

O Besos

He has the best chance of winning since he is one of the late-running colts in this race who appears to have the most potential and who is likely to move forward most quickly if the pace slows down. In the Louisiana Derby, trainer Greg Foley was thrilled with O Besos’ third-place result. He is hopeful that the colt will take a step ahead on the first Saturday in May. Reasons why he won’t win:He’ll have to make a significant improvement in order to compete with the best horses in this race. He placed sixth in his lone race at Churchill Downs, despite the fact that it took place on a sloppy surface.

King Fury

Why he has a chance to win:After a hectic 2-year-old season, he received a lengthy layoff and appears to have returned to form, winning the Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland by 2 34 lengths. Kenneth McPeek, the horse’s trainer, believes this may be the greatest horse he’s ever had for the Kentucky Derby, and King Fury has previously earned a victory at the track, having done so in September. He is unable to win because of the following reasons: The Lexington is not the Santa Anita Derby, nor is it the Florida Derby, nor is it the Blue Grass, among other races.


The reason he can win:He might be able to replicate his victory in the Grade 2 Kentucky Gold Cup on Nov. 28 when he won by three-quarters of a length in a close finish. The colt was particularly impressive when competing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland, when he finished third behind Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie by only two lengths.

He is unable to win because of the following reasons: He’s finished last in both of his appearances as a 3-year-old, and his speed figures in each of those races have shown a significant deterioration since last year.

Brooklyn Strong

  • Why he has a chance to win: Do you believe in miracles? He is unable to win because of the following reasons: Once, when he was three years old, he ran and finished sixth in a very sluggish Wood Memorial. Jason Frakes can be reached at 502-582-4046 or [email protected]
  • His Twitter handle is @KentuckyDerbyCJ.

These Are the Most Famous Horses from Kentucky Derby History

Which among you is ready to take part in this year’s Run for the Roses? The Kentucky Derbyhas a long and illustrious history, as well as a rich tradition. Southerners eagerly forward to the race throughout the year, donning anything from signature hats to mint juleps and everything in between. The inaugural run of the Kentucky Derby took place in 1875, thanks to the sponsorship of the Louisville Jockey Club. Because it’s the country’s longest-running sports event, it’s fair to say that the equestrian contestants are just as legendary as the race itself.

What do you think about the Secretariat?


This horse won the Kentucky Derby in 1913, despite being a long shot to do so. In fact, at 91-1, it was the longest shot of any of the winners. Several horses had the lead during the race, but Donerail and Roscoe Goose, his jockey, went ahead to win the race and take home the roses for their efforts.


Secretariat, the horse who won the Kentucky Derby in 1973, was probably the most well-known of all the horses who have competed in the race, which was the 99th running of the event. In part because this horse went on to win the Triple Crown and because he still retains the Derby record, having completed the course in 1:59:40, Secretariat is still a household name. Secretariat still retains the stakes records for all three of the Triple Crown races, despite the fact that he has retired from racing.

Seattle Slew

After winning the Derby in 1977, Seattle Slew went on to win the Triple Crown in 1978. This horse would go on to win the Triple Crown, becoming the tenth horse in history to do so. Seattle Slew was the first and only Triple Crown champion to be undefeated at the time. This horse’s unbeaten racing career is considered to be one of the most spectacular in the history of the sport of horse racing.


This horse was the 12th Triple Crown victor, and he did it in 1978, when he won the race at Belmont Park. Affirmed is as well-known for his Triple Crown victory as he is for his infamous neck-and-neck duel with Alydar, a horse with whom Affirmed competed 10 times in the Kentucky Derby. It took 37 years after Affirmed for the next Triple Crown champion to arrive, which came in the form of American Pharoah in 2015. That chasm established a new world record. Another record was made when Affirmed won the Triple Crown the year after Seattle Slew did it, since it was the first time the Triple Crown had been won in back-to-back years in the United States.

Spectacular Bid

For the whole of its two-year-old season in 1978, this horse was a champion, and it went on to win the 1979 Kentucky Derby, which was a competition for three-year-old horses. Ronnie Franklin, the jockey of Spectacular Bid, won the race in what was his first time riding in the Kentucky Derby.

Genuine Risk

Genuine Risk, who won the Kentucky Derby in 1980, is one of just three fillies to have done so in the history of the race.

The others were Regret (1915) and Winning Colors (1988), both of which were released in the same year.


Monarchos was the winner of the Kentucky Derby in 2001. After Secretariat, he became only the second horse in history to complete the Derby in under 2:00.

Smarty Jones

In 2004, Smarty Jones was the winner of the Kentucky Derby (as well as the Preakness Stakes). This horse brought an end to a four-decade wait when he became the first unbeaten horse to win the Kentucky Derby since Seattle Slew did it in 1977. In winning the Kentucky Derby for the first time since Ronnie Franklin did it with Spectacular Bid in 1979, Stewart Elliott became the first jockey to do so since that year.

California Chrome

Even though California Chrome did not win the Triple Crown in 2014, he did win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes in the same year. California Chrome was the fourth horse to be bred in California to win the Kentucky Derby. Although the winning time was deemed sluggish for a Derby victory, California Chrome’s popularity was undeniable, earning him the moniker “the People’s Horse” because of his widespread appeal.

American Pharoah

American Pharoah is the most recent Triple Crown champion, having taken home first place finishes in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes in the same year. In the Derby, American Pharoah finished with a quicker quarter-mile time than Secretariat, who finished second. That’s a remarkable time of 24.32 seconds, to be sure.


Having won the Derby as an unbeaten two-year-old season champion, Nyquist becomes only the second Derby winner to do so. Nyquist’s previous victory came in the 2016 Kentucky Derby, which he won by a margin of 114 lengths. Nyquist is a descendent of Secretariat who is in his 5th generation. It’s possible you’ll be interested in the following:Will you be watching the Kentucky Derby this year? Tell us about your most cherished Kentucky Derby runs. (With the exception of the Secretariat.)

Biggest long shots to beat the odds and win the Kentucky Derby

Even though Leicester City has never won the Kentucky Derby (a 5000-to-1 longshot), the Run for the Roses hasn’t always been won by the favorites, as the recent past has shown. In the more than 140 years that the Kentucky Derby has been held, a handful of bettors have reaped substantial rewards by placing their money on the most improbable of underdogs. The following are eight of the most unlikely candidates to win the Kentucky Derby. Donerail was built in 1913. Field size:8Time:2:04.80 Field size:8 Odds of winning: 91-1 for a half-time triumph Donerail, who started from the fifth post, won driving and overtook the rest of the field in the closing sixteenth of a mile to take the victory.

Despite this, he remains the longest-shot winner of the Kentucky Derby, and this is a distinction that should be maintained because few horses are rated so high in today’s racing world.

Time:2:03.93 Odds of winning: 65-1 for a three-quarter triumph.

The result was that Country House, who finished second by 1 3/4 lengths, would be crowned champion in one of the more contentious editions of the “Run for the Roses” in recent memory.

Mine That Bird, 2009Field size:19Time:2:02.66Minimum field size:19Minimum field size:19 Victory is expected to last 6 to 3/4 hours with odds of 50-1.

And he certainly had the appearance of a champion for most of the race.

It was the largest Derby win in more than 60 years, and the first time in the United Kingdom.

MORE:Kentucky Derby wins are listed in alphabetical order.

After placing third in this race, Afleet Alex went on to win the Preakness and the Belmont.

Field size:8Time:2:05 (in minutes) Victory’s length: 1 1/2Odds:35-1 In addition to being a long shot, no other horse was given much of a chance to beat Bimelech, who was a 2-to-5 favorite at the time of the race.

Gallahadion finished third in Pimlico, but the extra distance proved too much for him, and he was unable to finish in the Belmont.

As he approached the finish line, he realized he had little left in the tank.

Time:2:03.29 Neck is the length of victory.

Wayne Lukas, he did it by a neck against Menifee, who was putting up a far stronger fight.

Despite winning the Preakness and taking the lead in the Belmont Stakes in the last furlong, Charismatic was overtaken by Lemon Drop Kid and finished third.

Antley subsequently stated that he was aware of the issue and that he softened Charismatic in the last furlong to prevent additional harm.

During the remainder of his 3-year-old season, he only won two more races.

Field size:8Time:2:10.89Length of victory:1Odds of winning:29 to one Exterminator wasn’t even scheduled to be in the Derby, but he came in to replace training companion Sun Briar only a few days before the 44th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 5.

Exterminator competed in 99 races throughout the course of his illustrious career and was twice named Horse of the Year.

Thunder Gulch was completed in 1995.

Time:2:01.27 2 1/2 minutes is the length of the triumph.

The Kentucky Derby winner stayed within striking distance at the top of the stretch before comfortably putting the race away by two and a half lengths at Churchill Downs. Upon the conclusion of that season, he was retired and is still residing at Coolmore Stud in Versailles, Kentucky.

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